YouGov research suggests Labour just ahead in Ayrshire

The YouGov analysis suggests that if an election were held today, Labour would be the party most likely to win all four Ayrshire seats – North Ayrshire and Arran, Central Ayrshire, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, and Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – though in all four, the party is ahead by only a narrow margin.

All four Ayrshire constituencies are described as ‘toss-ups’ in the detailed seat-by-seat analysis carried out by YouGov.

The research suggests Labour could win 34 Scottish seats at the July 4 poll, with the SNP taking 17, the Conservatives five and the Liberal Democrats one.

The poll, using the MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) technique and carried out for Sky News, suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on course for a Commons majority of 194 – the largest margin for any party since 1924.

The YouGov research has Labour ahead across Ayrshire - but all the local seats are still too close to call. (Image: YouGov)

In North Ayrshire and Arran, the research has Labour on 38.1 per cent of the vote and the SNP on 33.4 per cent.

Central Ayrshire has Labour on 35.2 per cent and the SNP on 30.8 per cent.

In Kilmarnock and Loudoun, the YouGov study has Labour on 38.9 per cent and the SNP on 34.8 per cent.

And in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, the race is the closest of all the Ayrshire seats, with Labour on 31.8 per cent and the SNP on 30.6 per cent.

The Conservatives are third in all four constituencies – on 11.4 per cent in North Ayrshire and Arran, 18.1 per cent in Central Ayrshire, 7.1 per cent in Kilmarnock and Loudoun, and 22.8 per cent in Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock.

All four seats have been held by the SNP for the last nine years.

They are among 20 in Scotland – more than a third of the total – which the YouGov research indicates are too close to call, meaning there’s plenty for all the parties to fight for in the four-and-a-bit weeks remaining in the campaign.

The Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale seat, which includes the villages of Sanquhar and Kirkconnel in Upper Nithsdale, is currently on course to be retained by the Conservatives, according to the research.

YouGov’s estimated seat projections were based on responses from 5,541 adults in Scotland and 53,334 in England and Wales.

Voters in Ayrshire, and across the UK, go to the polls on July 4. (Image: Newsquest)

YouGov said the Scottish sample was the largest it had used for a poll using the MRP technique since the 2019 general election.

Across the UK the YouGov research suggests Labour is on course for a landslide win with 420 MPs, up from 202 at the last election five years ago, with the Conservatives down to just 140.

The projected SNP total of 17 seats is little more than a third of the 48 constituencies won by the party in 2019.

Candidates declared so far in all the Ayrshire seats are as follows.

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: Allan Dorans (SNP), Martin Dowey (Conservative), Andrew Russell (Reform UK), Elaine Stewart (Labour), Corri Wilson (Alba).

Central Ayrshire: Stevie Bates (Reform UK), Alan Gemmell (Labour), Allan MacMillan (Social Democratic Party), Annie McIndoe (SNP), David Rocks (Conservative).

Kilmarnock and Loudoun: Alan Brown (SNP), Jordan Cowie (Conservative), Lillian Jones (Labour).

North Ayrshire and Arran: Irene Campbell (Labour), Todd Ferguson (Conservative), Ian Gibson (Social Democratic Party), Patricia Gibson (SNP), Michael Mann (Reform UK).

The deadline for candidates to submit nomination papers is 4pm on Friday, June 7, and the lists of candidates standing in each constituency will be published by 5pm on the same day.

The YouGov predictions published on Monday are the first of three polling projections it will carry out with Sky News during the course of the campaign.

For more information on the YouGov research see yougov.co.uk/elections/uk/2024.